Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6caa…4fb3 sports 514 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$451 (-9%) realized −$470 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%204W / 283L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days+$84
14 days+$33
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$318
other 8% −$158
crypto 2% −$30
world 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +14.0% +3.1% 48% 45% +7.1%
≤30d 153 -3.8% -12.9% 56% 41% -14.4%
≤90d 487 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 37% -19.0%
all 487 -14.4% -22.5% 42% 37% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 37% -19.0%
10% -29.9% 32% -26.7%
15% -36.7% 30% -33.8%
20% -42.9% 28% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$470
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses204 / 283
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions27
Markets (closed)487 / 514
History coverage80d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 86¢ 98¢ $149 $170 +$21 (+14%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+126%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+103%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners Under 51¢ 93¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 36¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 52¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Cecilio Waterman: 3+ shots Yes 47¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 32¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 34¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals Yes 26¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 35¢ 38¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ assists Yes 12¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Aleksandar Pavlović win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -76%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$5 +409%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$8 +704%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $121 +$28 +23%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $76 +$22 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $53 +$23 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $59 −$34 -58%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $31 +$22 +70%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 16 $28 +$3 +10%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $23 +$5 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +177%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $14 +$9 +63%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $12 +$2 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Hannibal Mejbri: 2+ shots Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +317%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +186%
Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs Ghost Gaming GC (BO3) - VCT Game C Jun 04 $36 −$36 -100%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 03 $4 +$1 +34%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $4 +$1 +12%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $4 +$1 +19%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Spread: Italy (-2.5) Jun 03 $4 +$1 +27%
Tyler: Yuta Shimizu vs Dane Sweeny Jun 03 $2 +$3 +122%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $4 $0 +11%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $3 +$3 +82%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $3 +$5 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Cecilio Waterman: 3+ shots BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 51¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $150 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $149 2h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $1 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $121 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $76 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 43¢ $1 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 43¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $53 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Under 100¢ $53 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $31 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 26h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $30 28h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 29h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 88¢ $28 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $2 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $27 45h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $2 47h
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.07 · official $196.17 (match) · 1618 history records