trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | -56.8% | -60.9% | 25% | 25% | -53.5% |
| ≤30d | 24 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 38% | 38% | -0.8% |
| ≤90d | 29 | -18.3% | -26.1% | 31% | 31% | -14.0% |
| all | 29 | -18.3% | -26.1% | 31% | 31% | -14.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.1% | 31% | -14.0% |
| 10% | -33.2% | 31% | -22.2% |
| 15% | -39.6% | 24% | -29.7% |
| 20% | -45.5% | 21% | -36.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? | No | 28¢ | 28¢ | $514 | $531 | +$17 (+3%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 24¢ | 12¢ | $500 | $260 | −$240 (-48%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | Yes | 12¢ | 6¢ | $300 | $132 | −$168 (-56%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $100 | $99 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | Yes | 7¢ | 2¢ | $200 | $67 | −$133 (-66%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $550 | $49 | −$501 (-91%) |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $802 | $13 | −$789 (-98%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $4 | −$96 (-96%) |
| Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Yes | 14¢ | 16¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+17%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $100 | −$58 | -58% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? | Jun 15 | $745 | −$745 | -100% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $43 | −$43 | -100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 15 | $350 | −$157 | -45% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? | Jun 15 | $360 | −$272 | -76% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 15 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $420 | −$420 | -100% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Jun 12 | $52 | −$50 | -96% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 12 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? | Jun 12 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | Jun 10 | $100 | +$28 | +28% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Jun 10 | $100 | +$33 | +33% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | Jun 10 | $100 | +$37 | +37% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? | Jun 10 | $104 | −$100 | -96% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 10 | $275 | −$25 | -9% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 10 | $765 | +$548 | +72% |
| Iran closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 08 | $500 | +$799 | +160% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 04 | $200 | −$47 | -24% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | Jun 04 | $516 | −$182 | -35% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | Jun 01 | $200 | +$655 | +327% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | May 31 | $300 | +$672 | +224% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends? | May 31 | $400 | +$948 | +237% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | May 25 | $304 | −$304 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | May 25 | $2 | +$2 | +89% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 07 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 07 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 07 | $450 | −$450 | -100% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? | May 07 | $207 | −$200 | -96% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 07 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |