Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cab…8de4 other 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$300 (-17%) realized −$316 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%34W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day63.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$153
sports 43% −$122
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -21.8% -29.2% 20% 19% -28.5%
≤30d 170 -21.8% -29.2% 20% 19% -28.5%
≤90d 170 -21.8% -29.2% 20% 19% -28.5%
all 170 -21.8% -29.2% 20% 19% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 19% -28.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 19% -35.4%
15% -42.2% 19% -41.6%
20% -47.9% 18% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$7 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$316
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses34 / 136
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions9
Markets (closed)170 / 179
History coverage6d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day63.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $88 $104 +$16 (+18%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 53¢ 52¢ $88 $85 −$2 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 44¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +144%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$18 +178%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$12 +113%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 +$35 +1150%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$15 +150%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$32 +317%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 +$59 +1290%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $93 +$126 +135%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$12 +117%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 +$4 +100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$24 +245%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $89 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 9h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $5 11h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 12h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 13h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $10 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $1 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $3 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $6 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $1 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $3 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $3 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $3 16h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $4 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 16h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 18h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.04 · official $246.04 (match) · 451 history records