Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cac…4a0e sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-22%) realized −$45 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate63%68W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$53
other 29% −$10
weather 17% $0
culture 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.1% -9.4% 87% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 59 -2.8% -12.0% 90% 0% -12.0%
≤90d 59 -2.8% -12.0% 90% 0% -12.0%
all 108 -22.0% -29.4% 63% 14% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 14% -35.9%
10% -36.2% 12% -42.0%
15% -42.4% 11% -47.6%
20% -48.0% 9% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses68 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage114d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $9 −$9 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $19 2h
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.41 · official $9.41 (match) · 187 history records