Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6cad…0758 sports 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$656 (-3%) realized −$658 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%104W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$261est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$941
7 days+$807
14 days+$1,074
30 days+$1,079
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$426
other 9% −$582
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +6.9% -3.3% 47% 47% +4.1%
≤30d 86 +8.5% -1.9% 51% 51% +2.2%
≤90d 189 -5.7% -14.7% 46% 46% -16.9%
all 206 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 50% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 50% -10.0%
10% -16.8% 50% -18.6%
15% -24.9% 50% -26.5%
20% -32.2% 50% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$119 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$658
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses104 / 102
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions1
Markets (closed)206 / 208
History coverage106d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 54¢ 55¢ $166 $168 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $87 +$81 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $199 +$186 +93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $290 +$292 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $162 −$160 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 +$62 +62%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $63 +$78 +123%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$94 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $383 +$386 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $124 −$122 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $122 −$120 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$99 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 +$113 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $61 +$97 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $200 +$135 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $114 +$87 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $45 +$40 +89%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $95 +$108 +114%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $82 −$38 -46%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $156 −$153 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $137 −$135 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $199 −$196 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $155 +$151 +97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $84 −$83 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $176 +$145 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $97 −$95 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$97 +237%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $111 +$126 +114%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$123 +414%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $92 +$104 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $80 +$126 +158%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$58 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 54¢ $30 20m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 54¢ $138 21m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $582 25m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $290 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $199 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $87 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $162 12h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $99 22h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $100 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $141 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $63 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $769 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $383 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $124 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $122 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $101 32h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $40 32h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $23 32h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $103 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $158 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $213 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $334 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $200 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $61 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.54 · official $167.54 (match) · 389 history records