Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cb0…bd72 other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$14
world 30% +$3
politics 23% +$2
sports 6% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 9 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 0% -8.6%
all 47 -4.7% -13.8% 30% 4% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -10.4%
10% -22.0% 0% -19.0%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.5% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage300d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $61 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $18 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $19 $0 +2%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $20 −$12 -62%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $58 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $7 $0 +4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? Sep 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 10 $8 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 10 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $2 $0 -5%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 10m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $35 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $35 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $31 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $35 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $35 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $18 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $25 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $7 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $30 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $0 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 26d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 26d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 138d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 27¢ $12 203d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $6 203d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $6 203d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 27¢ $5 203d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 203d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 27¢ $16 203d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 307 history records