Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cb1…2c02 world 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%31W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$33
other 20% $0
sports 14% −$4
politics 5% −$4
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 37 +37.6% +24.5% 27% 8% -10.4%
≤90d 70 +17.9% +6.7% 30% 4% -10.1%
all 116 +10.7% +0.1% 27% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 3% -10.0%
10% -9.4% 2% -18.6%
15% -18.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -26.2% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses31 / 85
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage270d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $96 $96 −$1 (-1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 39¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $96 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $73 +$2 +3%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $95 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $98 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $215 −$3 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $99 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $90 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $61 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $282 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $10 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $314 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $76 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $212 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $100 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $197 +$5 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $90 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $91 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $193 +$7 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $99 −$10 -10%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $186 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $73 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $116 −$32 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $118 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $118 −$1 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 20 $234 −$1 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $37 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 19 $118 +$1 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $264 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $169 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $103 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $99 −$1 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 05 $117 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 04 $61 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 02 $122 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $208 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $96 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $96 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $96 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $62 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $54 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $89 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $48 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $84 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $95 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $85 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $85 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.90 · official $95.62 · 775 history records