Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cb3…517a crypto 215 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%129W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days+$69
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +11.3% +0.7% 56% 56% +0.2%
≤30d 58 +10.0% -0.4% 57% 57% -2.6%
≤90d 215 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 53% -11.2%
all 215 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 53% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 53% -11.2%
10% -19.2% 40% -19.7%
15% -27.0% 32% -27.5%
20% -34.1% 23% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses129 / 86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)215 / 215
History coverage77d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 215 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$13 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $42 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$36 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$50 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$36 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$21 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$17 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$12 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$41 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$26 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 387 history records