Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:10:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6C 0x6cb4…68a0 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+35%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$5
other 18% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +49.7% +35.4% 80% 80% +20.2%
≤30d 5 +49.7% +35.4% 80% 80% +20.2%
≤90d 5 +49.7% +35.4% 80% 80% +20.2%
all 5 +49.7% +35.4% 80% 80% +20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.4% 80% +20.2%
10% +22.5% 80% +8.7%
15% +10.6% 80% -1.8%
20% -0.2% 80% -11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $8 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records