Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6C
0x6cb8…ef87
world · 73 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses28 / 43
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage481d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 74¢ 77¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $46 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $46 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $36 −$2 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $225 +$3 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $82 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $115 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $73 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $9 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $42 −$3 -8%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $22 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $14 +$2 +17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $1 $0 +22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $4 $0 -9%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $34 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $2 $0 +15%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $91 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% +$3
other 26% +$2
politics 22% $0
sports 13% −$13
economics 4% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $11 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $25 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $20 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $46 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $51 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $51 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $2 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $7 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $9 38h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 40h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 40h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 43h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $27 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $11 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $46 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $47 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $46 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $16 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $23 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 10% -9.7%
≤30d 27 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 11% -9.0%
≤90d 70 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 7% -9.3%
all 71 -1.5% -10.8% 39% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 7% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.45 · official $11.29 (match) · 345 history records