Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cb8…912a other 166 markets active 2h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate7%12W / 154L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$294per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$23
politics 36% −$22
sports 12% +$5
crypto 6% −$3
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 128 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 166 -1.1% -10.5% 7% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses12 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage126d
Avg bet$294
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $239 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $289 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $292 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $289 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $282 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $290 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $306 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $294 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $306 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 12 $318 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,238 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $286 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $252 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $328 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $273 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 29 $318 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 5h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 18h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 34h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 40h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $25 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 11d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 12d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 16d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 21d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 22d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $228 22d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $228 24d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 25d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 464 history records