Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cba…15c3 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%40W / 76L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$18
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$1
other 29% $0
sports 24% −$4
politics 8% −$8
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 +70.8% +54.6% 35% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 50 +84.6% +67.0% 34% 8% -9.6%
all 116 +33.8% +21.0% 34% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.0% 4% -9.6%
10% +9.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -1.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -10.8% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses40 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage462d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 72¢ 64¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $167 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $152 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $263 −$3 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $153 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $74 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $308 −$3 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $171 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $158 −$3 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $83 −$16 -19%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $185 +$7 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $587 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $184 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $285 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $165 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $316 −$3 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $4 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $183 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 29 $106 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $182 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $180 +$2 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $92 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $162 +$3 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $163 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $334 +$7 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $170 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $86 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2 +$1 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $11 $0 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $586 $0 -0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $172 −$7 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $151 +$6 +4%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 21 $9 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,114 −$4 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,113 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $693 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $1,114 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1,035 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $167 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $167 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $17 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $135 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $152 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $166 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $166 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $72 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $77 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $154 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $153 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $10 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $74 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $74 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $5 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $26 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $32 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $32 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $28 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $27 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $2 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $152 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $83 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $85 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.72 · official $0.00 · 408 history records