Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:46:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cba…f630 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$13 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day53.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$10
world 18% −$1
other 15% +$5
finance 12% −$1
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% −$1
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -19.3% -27.0% 19% 7% -15.0%
≤30d 27 -19.3% -27.0% 19% 7% -15.0%
≤90d 27 -19.3% -27.0% 19% 7% -15.0%
all 27 -19.3% -27.0% 19% 7% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.0% 7% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -34.0% 4% -23.1%
15% -40.3% 4% -30.6%
20% -46.2% 4% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day53.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia (27) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 3¢ 28¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+822%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2650%)
Will Deep Fission's market cap be at least $3.0B at market close on IPO day? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+950%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -30%
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 16 $1 $0 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $46 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 16 $11 −$3 -27%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $205 in June? Jun 16 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Vivo Keyd Stars qualify to the EWC Jun 16 $0 $0 -3%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,080 Week of June 15 20 Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? Jun 15 $48 −$3 -7%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 15 $13 $0 -3%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -38%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Will José Ramírez record the most intentional walks during the 2026 ML Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 56m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? SELL No 84¢ $17 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 4¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $17 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $46 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No 5¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 6h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $205 in June? SELL No 84¢ $42 6h
Will Vivo Keyd Stars qualify to the EWC SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.09 · official $11.08 (match) · 104 history records