Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6C 0x6cba…351c other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+5%) realized +$8 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$53
other 47% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.3% -2.9% 71% 71% +21.0%
≤30d 7 +7.3% -2.9% 71% 71% +21.0%
≤90d 7 +7.3% -2.9% 71% 71% +21.0%
all 7 +7.3% -2.9% 71% 71% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 71% +21.0%
10% -12.2% 71% +9.4%
15% -20.7% 57% -1.1%
20% -28.4% 29% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.3 per $1 lost it wins $5.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals No 76¢ 75¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 82¢ $52 $69 +$16 (+31%)
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? No 48¢ 48¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $58 +$34 +58%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $93 +$32 +34%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 29 $28 +$14 +50%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 29 $46 +$17 +36%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $21 +$15 +73%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $46 1h
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 48¢ $15 1h
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $46 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $27 10h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 63¢ $29 10h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $46 10h
Netherlands to score first vs. Morocco? BUY No 47¢ $15 12h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $26 17h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $47 17h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $29 17h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 73¢ $46 28h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $28 36h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 57¢ $21 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 38¢ $9 2d
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? BUY No 44¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.14 · official $188.14 (match) · 20 history records