Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6cbc…b8de sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,270 (-21%) realized −$1,616 · open −$654
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$41
14 days−$57
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 38% −$724
sports 25% −$1,859
world 17% −$33
other 14% +$92
crypto 6% +$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.8% -19.3% 56% 44% -1.2%
≤30d 23 +13.3% +2.5% 61% 57% +1.7%
≤90d 37 +21.0% +9.5% 59% 57% -26.1%
all 41 +14.5% +3.6% 56% 54% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 54% -26.8%
10% -6.3% 54% -33.8%
15% -15.4% 54% -40.2%
20% -23.7% 51% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$270 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$906
Realized−$1,616
Unrealized−$654
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions7
Markets (closed)41 / 49
History coverage148d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $1,000 $485 −$515 (-52%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $150 $181 +$31 (+20%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $150 $105 −$45 (-30%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 65¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $50 $7 −$43 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 21 $26 −$19 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $11 +$7 +64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $53 +$41 +78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $205 +$80 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22? Jun 20 $52 +$4 +8%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$13 +86%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$16 +65%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $35 −$22 -61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$25 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? May 31 $21 −$15 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? May 31 $103 −$9 -9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $25 +$33 +129%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $35 +$28 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $51 +$31 +62%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $41 +$34 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? May 26 $154 +$99 +64%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $51 +$31 +61%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $490 −$357 -73%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $152 −$150 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 22 $1,000 −$710 -71%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 22 $300 +$248 +83%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $250 +$886 +354%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 14 $2,000 −$1,203 -60%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $150 +$151 +101%
Oilers vs. Sharks Apr 10 $50 +$43 +85%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $100 +$86 +86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 07 $1,000 +$1,189 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 25? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -99%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $50 +$32 +64%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $100 −$47 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Up 9¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 50¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 45¢ $94 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 94¢ $284 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 43¢ $56 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $15 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 66¢ $205 2d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Up 30¢ $26 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 23¢ $53 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 100¢ $50 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $51 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $25 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 24¢ $14 7d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $20 8d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $35 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 9d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $30 10d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 12d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 12d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $51 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $905.73 · official $905.73 (match) · 234 history records