Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cbc…1b63 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$10
sports 20% −$12
crypto 3% −$4
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-60.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -56.0% -60.1% 33% 33% -20.1%
≤30d 6 -56.0% -60.1% 33% 33% -20.1%
≤90d 6 -56.0% -60.1% 33% 33% -20.1%
all 6 -56.0% -60.1% 33% 33% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.1% 33% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -64.0% 17% -27.7%
15% -67.4% 17% -34.7%
20% -70.6% 0% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 33¢ 34¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 35¢ 94¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+167%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 54¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 17¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $43 +$10 +22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $4 +$2 +42%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $1 7m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 54¢ $2 11m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $38 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 99¢ $39 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $11 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $3 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $2 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $14 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $4 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $2 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $2 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $2 4h
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic SELL Emma Navarro 99¢ $6 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $3 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $1 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $2 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $2 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $1 5h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $4 5h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $6 6h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $1 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $2 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $2 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.49 · official $58.72 (match) · 34 history records