Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6cbd…5480 crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$751 (-44%) realized −$754 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days−$230
14 days−$272
30 days−$272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$628
other 11% −$129
sports 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-53.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -18.1% -25.9% 29% 29% -36.5%
≤30d 80 -22.2% -29.6% 28% 28% -39.7%
≤90d 138 -48.3% -53.2% 18% 17% -57.6%
all 138 -48.3% -53.2% 18% 17% -57.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.2% 17% -57.6%
10% -57.7% 17% -61.7%
15% -61.8% 17% -65.4%
20% -65.5% 17% -68.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -87% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$754
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 113
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)138 / 144
History coverage60d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Down 4¢ 18¢ $4 $18 +$14 (+374%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$22 +431%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$11 +192%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$9 -53%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +330%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +135%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$21 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $169 −$159 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$83 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +95%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$47 +86%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +162%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$29 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $4 6m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $27 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 12m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 15m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $16 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 41m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $9 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $23 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $12 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.10 · official $24.10 (match) · 227 history records