Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6C
0x6cbe…5323
other · 78 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
−$165 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$134 · open −$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$840
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)64 / 78
History coverage144d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 14 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$150
14 days+$150
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 87¢ 82¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 51¢ 44¢ $200 $171 −$29 (-15%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 47¢ 64¢ $70 $94 +$24 (+34%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 19¢ 34¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+80%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 25¢ 5¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-79%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $172 +$75 +43%
Will Dua Lipa and Callum Turner get married by December 31? Jun 07 $241 +$85 +35%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 01 $75 −$25 -33%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 01 $70 +$154 +220%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $300 −$298 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 02 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to Apr 02 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $25 +$17 +67%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $104 +$81 +78%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 01 $320 +$171 +53%
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Mar 16 $200 −$68 -34%
Will Powell say "Stock Market" during January press conference? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars? Mar 16 $30 −$30 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 16 $110 +$7 +6%
Will Powell say "Assumption" during January press conference? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 15 minut Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Let God Sort Em Out (Clipse Pusha T Malice) win Best Rap Album at Mar 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Mar 16 $40 −$10 -26%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 11 $100 −$60 -60%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $200 −$86 -43%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Mar 08 $50 −$14 -28%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $100 +$101 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 05 $5 +$4 +79%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 04 $110 +$16 +15%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 03 $175 +$71 +41%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $150 −$48 -32%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31? Feb 26 $50 −$22 -43%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 26 $100 +$51 +51%
Winter Games 2026: Will USA or Norway earn more medals? Feb 23 $328 +$49 +15%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $50 −$15 -30%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Feb 18 $26 −$21 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 28% +$228
tech 28% +$134
politics 21% −$196
world 15% +$8
culture 5% −$113
economics 2% −$149
finance 2% −$60
sports 0% −$20
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 75¢ $100 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 5h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 16h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 16h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $246 17h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $172 19h
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 47¢ $71 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 11d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 37¢ $50 42d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 0¢ $2 43d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 55d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 33¢ $60 71d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 87¢ $200 71d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 51¢ $200 71d
Will Trump's remarks not air? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 71d
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? BUY No 68¢ $5 71d
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? BUY No 82¢ $8 71d
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to BUY No 73¢ $10 71d
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 71d
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 71d
Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 71d
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio BUY Yes 72¢ $15 71d
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 71d
Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 50% +16.5%
≤30d 4 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 50% +16.5%
≤90d 37 -35.0% -41.2% 35% 32% -20.6%
all 64 -18.1% -25.9% 42% 39% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 39% -11.7%
10% -33.0% 28% -20.2%
15% -39.4% 25% -27.9%
20% -45.4% 17% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $840.16 · official $840.44 (match) · 305 history records