Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cbe…33e4 other 158 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,089 (-1%) realized −$2,090 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%24W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,101per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$40
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$92
other 39% −$176
sports 11% −$1,838
culture 3% −$6
economics 2% −$3
world 2% −$7
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -8.9% -17.6% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 76 -4.3% -13.4% 5% 1% -10.9%
all 157 -6.1% -15.0% 15% 8% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 8% -10.6%
10% -23.2% 8% -19.2%
15% -30.6% 7% -27.0%
20% -37.4% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,435) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$19 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$2,090
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses24 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)157 / 158
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,101
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $389 $390 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $1,860 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $2,244 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,542 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $916 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,576 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $628 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,173 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,555 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,183 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,767 −$5 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $4,001 −$6 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $641 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,664 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,084 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,603 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,697 −$4 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,499 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $370 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,407 −$2 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $499 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,751 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $824 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,244 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,019 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $717 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $61 +$49 +79%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $2,162 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $3,558 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $3,258 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $2,586 −$4 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,404 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,607 −$4 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 04 $3,340 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $546 15m
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $547 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $480 2h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $480 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $432 43h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $432 44h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $841 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $842 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $914 5d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $916 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $714 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $715 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $627 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $628 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $888 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $889 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $662 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $663 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $841 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $842 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $389 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,239 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $938 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $939 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $709 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $710 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $615 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.33 · official $390.33 (match) · 830 history records