Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6cbf…46a6 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate81%21W / 5L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$1
tech 10% +$1
economics 9% $0
culture 5% $0
finance 2% $0
world 2% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 1% +$2
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 5 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 20% -8.3%
all 26 +4.8% -5.1% 81% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 12% -9.1%
10% -14.2% 4% -17.8%
15% -22.5% 4% -25.8%
20% -30.1% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.17 per $1 lost it wins $10.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses21 / 5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage243d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 98¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 01 $25 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? May 01 $2 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Nets Mar 31 $1 $0 +20%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 31 $5 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 26 $108 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jan 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $301 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 15 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 16 $4 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 16 $5 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 16 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14? Dec 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 02 $6 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 02 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 14 $8 $0 +1%
Suns vs. Warriors Nov 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 05 $123 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 05 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 30? Nov 05 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $2 $0 +1%
Western Kentucky vs. Louisiana Tech Oct 29 $2 +$2 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $25 52d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $3 52d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 83d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 115d
Spurs vs. Nets BUY Spurs 83¢ $1 115d
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central BUY Yes 98¢ $2 155d
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central BUY Yes 98¢ $3 157d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $107 157d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $80 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $80 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $80 178d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 178d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $80 178d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $94 185d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $24 185d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $70 188d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $94 188d
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 BUY Yes 99¢ $8 188d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 89¢ $10 188d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $92 188d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $108 188d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $113 188d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $4 188d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $5 188d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $6 202d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $113 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.46 · official $98.46 (match) · 72 history records