Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6C 0x6cc0…e0be crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$13 · open −$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%6W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day14.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit68%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1

7 days−$13

14 days−$13

30 days−$13

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-36.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-29.6%	-36.3%	30%	30%	-17.1%
≤30d	20	-29.6%	-36.3%	30%	30%	-17.1%
≤90d	20	-29.6%	-36.3%	30%	30%	-17.1%
all	20	-29.6%	-36.3%	30%	30%	-17.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.3%	30%	-17.1%
10%	-42.4%	30%	-25.0%
15%	-48.0%	20%	-32.2%
20%	-53.1%	20%	-38.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -57% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.71 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$13

Unrealized−$30

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses6 / 14

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage3d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day14.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	75¢	0¢	$25	$0	−$25 (-100%)
Netherlands leading at halftime?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	25¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	30¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	50¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	22¢	0¢	$9	$0	−$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	14¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)
Korea Republic leading at halftime?	Yes	29¢	0¢	$4	$0	−$4 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$20	+$5	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$1	-27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 14	$5	+$3	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 14	$5	+$3	+65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$24	−$10	-41%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$6	−$4	-65%
Japan leading at halftime?	Jun 14	$5	−$2	-34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-95%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$7	+$4	+58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	Jun 14	$22	+$7	+34%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-98%
United States leading at halftime?	Jun 12	$2	$0	-15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$9	−$9	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	−$1	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 12	$3	−$1	-32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$9	+$7	+79%
Korea Republic leading at halftime?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 11	$6	−$2	-25%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	75¢	$25	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5	SELL Over	99¢	$25	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	78¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	SELL Down	38¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	SELL Down	88¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	SELL Up	86¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	44¢	$14	1h
Netherlands leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	11¢	$2	1h
Japan leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	16¢	$3	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	73¢	$24	3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	30¢	$6	3h
Japan leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$7	3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	SELL Over	60¢	$4	3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	SELL Over	66¢	$29	3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	48¢	$2	4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	48¢	$19	4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$2	4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$5	4h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY Yes	23¢	$2	2d
United States leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	32¢	$2	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	22¢	$9	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	45¢	$9	2d
United States leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	36¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$1	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 43 history records