Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cc4…1403 other 111 markets active 9h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+4%) realized +$118 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%55W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$50
14 days+$103
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$18
sports 29% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.6% -6.3% 61% 57% -2.1%
≤30d 79 -8.6% -17.3% 53% 47% -6.4%
≤90d 104 -10.0% -18.5% 53% 47% -8.4%
all 104 -10.0% -18.5% 53% 47% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 47% -8.4%
10% -26.3% 32% -17.2%
15% -33.5% 17% -25.2%
20% -40.0% 12% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses55 / 49
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)104 / 111
History coverage50d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+22%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $15 −$11 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $39 +$65 +167%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$15 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $30 −$5 -15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 −$14 -92%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $15 +$4 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$4 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$5 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $73 +$36 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $72 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $27 −$3 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $65 −$25 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $57 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $38 −$4 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $14 −$4 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $92 −$6 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $96 +$63 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $109 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $47 −$6 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $30 +$9 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$5 -35%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$13 -86%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $20 +$18 +88%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $30 +$5 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $30 −$17 -55%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $10 +$8 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $30 +$8 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Marcus McGhee win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $30 +$5 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $25 +$9 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $30 −$12 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $104 −$26 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $66 +$20 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $60 +$5 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $26 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $7 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 12h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 12h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $12 12h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $14 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 17h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 18h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 18h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $15 18h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 21h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 21h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 28h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $15 28h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 28h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $15 28h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.73 · official $68.73 (match) · 592 history records