Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6cc7…b8d7 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,659 (+5%) realized +$1,717 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate68%23W / 11L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$834per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$3,642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$632
7 days+$1,370
14 days+$1,414
30 days+$1,130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 38% +$998
world 36% +$231
other 17% +$349
politics 4% −$174
crypto 3% +$131
economics 1% +$3
tech 1% −$13
sports 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.6% +10.0% 100% 75% +14.7%
≤30d 16 -9.1% -17.7% 69% 44% -2.1%
≤90d 34 -11.3% -19.8% 68% 41% -4.7%
all 34 -11.3% -19.8% 68% 41% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 41% -4.7%
10% -27.4% 15% -13.8%
15% -34.4% 9% -22.1%
20% -40.9% 3% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,361) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$139 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$3,642
Realized+$1,717
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses23 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)34 / 42
History coverage70d
Avg bet$834
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 92¢ $1,860 $1,850 −$10 (-1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $390 $392 +$2 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 57¢ 36¢ $570 $365 −$205 (-36%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 65¢ 95¢ $200 $293 +$93 (+47%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $226 $268 +$42 (+18%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 99¢ $200 $249 +$49 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $164 $136 −$28 (-17%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $2,513 +$632 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,609 +$645 +40%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $580 +$18 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 14 $420 +$75 +18%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $339 +$44 +13%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 02 $51 −$48 -94%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $180 +$117 +65%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $850 +$150 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $312 −$192 -62%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $232 +$22 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 31 $2,889 +$88 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $1,361 +$115 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $136 −$136 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2,200 −$361 -16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $56 −$51 -91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $75 +$11 +15%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 21 $109 −$57 -52%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 21 $48 +$1 +2%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $1,120 −$491 -44%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 18 $668 +$105 +16%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $1,026 +$161 +16%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 14 $110 −$27 -25%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $889 −$159 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 14 $166 +$29 +17%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 13 $80 +$14 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $2,300 +$195 +8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 11 $109 +$19 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 10 $890 +$73 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $56 +$24 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 30 $1,600 +$376 +24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 29 $3,251 +$51 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 20 $3,758 +$170 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,515 47m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1,586 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $66 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $13 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $55 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $51 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $87 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $860 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $259 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $305 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $432 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,254 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $598 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $390 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $495 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $924 7d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $103 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $544 9d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 45¢ $55 9d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $108 9d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $307 9d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 11d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $20 11d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $0 11d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 11d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $9 11d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $15 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,641.98 · official $3,641.98 (match) · 330 history records