Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6cc8…6304 crypto 974 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,396 (-19%) realized −$1,396 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate53%574W / 502L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268
7 days−$264
14 days−$263
30 days−$257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$459
other 15% −$83
sports 5% +$1
politics 4% −$10
world 3% +$2
economics 1% +$1
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -44.1% -49.4% 21% 7% -42.4%
≤30d 233 -29.2% -36.0% 44% 6% -29.0%
≤90d 1076 -16.8% -24.7% 53% 21% -18.2%
all 1076 -16.8% -24.7% 53% 21% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 21% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 8% -26.0%
15% -38.5% 4% -33.2%
20% -44.5% 3% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$1,396
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses574 / 502
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1076 / 974
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1076 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 58¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Morocco to score first vs. Netherlands? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 37¢ 42¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? No 33¢ 35¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No 27¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? No 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jon Hansen win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 30 $1 +$1 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 30 $2 −$9 -386%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 30 $1 +$4 +334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 30 $2 +$6 +339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 30 $3 −$6 -238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 30 $0 +$2 +2758%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 30 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $91 4m
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima BUY No 98¢ $1 23m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 23m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 98¢ $1 23m
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 31m
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Morocco to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 32m
Morocco to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 33m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 98¢ $41 44m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 59¢ $25 50m
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 2h
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $2 2h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 96¢ $2 2h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 96¢ $2 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.04 · official $173.04 (match) · 3500 history records