Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6cc8…b133 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-3%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$3
other 36% −$16
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.9% +4.0% 100% 100% +4.0%
≤30d 7 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 43% -39.6%
≤90d 7 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 43% -39.6%
all 7 -14.0% -22.2% 43% 43% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 43% -39.6%
10% -29.6% 29% -45.4%
15% -36.4% 29% -50.7%
20% -42.7% 29% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)7 / 17
History coverage14d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $247 $248 +$1 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+39%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $15 $24 +$9 (+58%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-65%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 57¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $12 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 5d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $5 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $25 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $25 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $25 11d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $20 12d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 57¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.76 · official $368.76 (match) · 59 history records