Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cc9…ddae other 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 76% −$14
politics 14% −$8
other 7% −$16
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% +$4
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.6% 20% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 48 -2.5% -11.8% 23% 12% -10.0%
all 62 -2.2% -11.5% 23% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 10% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 10% -18.3%
15% -27.7% 6% -26.2%
20% -34.8% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage633d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $81 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $7 +$7 +90%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $76 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $76 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $149 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $78 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $78 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $6 +$6 +108%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Blues vs. Ducks Apr 06 $19 +$23 +122%
Ducks vs. Sharks Apr 03 $8 +$9 +104%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 01 $48 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 25 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Mar 24 $21 +$7 +32%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 05 $92 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 21m
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $44 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 24d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 28d
Will Solana reach $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 28d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.29 · official $44.29 (match) · 278 history records