Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6ccc…51de other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+8%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$8
crypto 20% +$9
sports 3% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 78% 44% -8.3%
≤30d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 78% 44% -8.3%
≤90d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 78% 44% -8.3%
all 9 +3.9% -6.0% 78% 44% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 44% -8.3%
10% -15.0% 33% -17.1%
15% -23.2% 11% -25.1%
20% -30.8% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$25 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $19 +$7 +34%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $59 −$40 -68%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 −$10 -32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $115 +$9 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$9 +47%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $220 +$21 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 59m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $19 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $59 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 54¢ $20 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $65 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $56 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $29 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $242 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $99 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records