Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6ccc…653f sports 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,098 (+9%) realized +$2,153 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%98W / 111L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$266est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$508
14 days−$608
30 days+$1,128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$2,231
other 19% −$459
crypto 8% −$293
politics 0% +$116
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -26.6% -33.6% 37% 26% -23.5%
≤30d 122 -23.7% -31.0% 37% 29% +0.2%
≤90d 189 -9.9% -18.5% 47% 36% -1.2%
all 209 -9.4% -18.0% 47% 37% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 37% -1.3%
10% -25.9% 28% -10.7%
15% -33.0% 21% -19.4%
20% -39.6% 14% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$33 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$1,152
Realized+$2,153
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses98 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$266
Open positions14
Markets (closed)209 / 232
History coverage381d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $260 $278 +$18 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $322 $273 −$49 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $123 $141 +$18 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $116 $121 +$5 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $154 $113 −$41 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 43¢ 29¢ $89 $59 −$30 (-34%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $28 $52 +$24 (+85%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-5%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+17%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+2%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 28¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $138 +$63 +46%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $7 $0 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $94 +$27 +29%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $109 −$23 -21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 16 $451 +$3 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$5 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $129 −$128 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $882 −$316 -36%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +55%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $606 +$17 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $210 +$102 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $42 −$14 -34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $40 +$22 +54%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $22 +$8 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $29 −$28 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $72 +$30 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $22 +$18 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $115 +$35 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $71 −$5 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $100 +$17 +17%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $25 −$12 -45%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 09 $99 −$38 -38%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$5 +26%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $53 −$3 -5%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 08 $32 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $17 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 08 $22 −$11 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $65 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $22 11h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $81 31h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $42 31h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $66 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 31h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $119 32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $100 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $21 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $40 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 7¢ $4 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 7¢ $4 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Australia 92¢ $454 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $45 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $46 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 91¢ $451 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 76¢ $75 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,152.07 · official $1,152.09 (match) · 1104 history records