Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ccd…5d84 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$2
other 33% $0
finance 10% $0
politics 9% $0
economics 6% +$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 14% -10.1%
≤90d 8 -12.6% -20.9% 38% 12% -10.1%
all 21 -2.5% -11.7% 57% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 10% -9.5%
10% -20.2% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 5% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage463d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $19 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $39 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $39 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $50 −$7 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $42 +$5 +11%
Will Stephen Colbert be named in Epstein files? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $13 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 30 $12 $0 +2%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $44 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $44 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $44 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $44 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $19 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $19 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $39 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $41 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $1 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $46 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $42 29d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 188d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 341d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 94¢ $12 356d
Will Stephen Colbert be named in Epstein files? BUY Yes $0 357d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 361d
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 94¢ $12 379d
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $13 379d
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $13 380d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $13 380d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $13 383d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 99¢ $2 385d
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? BUY No 99¢ $1 416d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records