Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cd6…5b60 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$23
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$34
politics 28% −$19
sports 16% −$16
crypto 6% −$6
economics 5% −$4
finance 5% −$4
culture 4% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 67 -0.7% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 112 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 134 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage107d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $148 −$2 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 17 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $94 −$2 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $52 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $155 −$2 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $279 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $118 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $18 $0 -2%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $113 −$4 -3%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $42 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $471 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $58 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $510 −$13 -3%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $139 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 02 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $113 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $487 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $55 46m
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $68 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $68 8h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 8h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 17h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 95¢ $41 17h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 97¢ $42 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $46 25h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 33h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $37 33h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 39h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $50 40h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $47 47h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $5 47h
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $42 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $42 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $41 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $41 2d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $9 2d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $9 2d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $36 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $55 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $32 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $24 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.10 · official $54.10 (match) · 540 history records