Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6C 0x6cd8…f0c2 other 84 markets active 2d ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$166 (-3%) realized −$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%44W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$322
7 days−$250
14 days−$191
30 days−$676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.1% +7.8% 60% 40% -48.1%
≤30d 21 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 24% -47.9%
≤90d 54 +14.3% +3.4% 52% 44% -11.2%
all 83 +22.1% +10.4% 53% 45% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.4% 45% -13.0%
10% -0.1% 40% -21.3%
15% -9.8% 33% -28.9%
20% -18.6% 25% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$52 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses44 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage157d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $325 −$322 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $99 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$22 +252%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $145 +$55 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $124 +$76 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $24 −$12 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $190 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $7 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 03 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 03 $84 −$72 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 03 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $118 +$34 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $6 −$5 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $294 −$288 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $102 +$48 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $17 +$37 +224%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $165 +$183 +111%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $21 −$13 -65%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $62 +$98 +158%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $105 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $242 +$61 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 03 $290 +$31 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $167 +$26 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $99 +$71 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $95 −$5 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $15 −$14 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $50 +$118 +236%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $50 −$24 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $318 +$32 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $50 +$91 +181%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $100 −$80 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $10 +$13 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 14 $30 +$48 +161%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $197 +$62 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $50 −$23 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $191 +$30 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $15 +$25 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $130 42h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $83 43h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 43h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 43h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $105 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $17 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $12 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $28 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $44 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $59 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $194 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $190 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 11d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 267 history records