Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cdb…8a82 politics 291 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (269 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,681 (+17%) realized +$11,964 · open −$283
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate13%56W / 375L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day269.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$371
politics 9% −$124
other 5% −$110
economics 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (269 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 408 -51.5% -56.1% 11% 6% -14.1%
≤30d 431 -48.7% -53.6% 13% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 431 -48.7% -53.6% 13% 6% -9.1%
all 431 -48.7% -53.6% 13% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover269.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.6% 6% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -58.0% 5% -17.8%
15% -62.1% 4% -25.7%
20% -65.8% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$6 · ×5.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$2,363
Realized+$11,964
Unrealized−$283
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses56 / 375
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions155
Markets (closed)431 / 291
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$240
Trades / day269.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 155 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 84¢ 98¢ $248 $291 +$43 (+17%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 74¢ 28¢ $456 $176 −$280 (-61%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? No 63¢ 72¢ $131 $148 +$18 (+14%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $104 $112 +$8 (+8%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 20¢ 62¢ $34 $104 +$70 (+204%)
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 44¢ 35¢ $62 $49 −$13 (-20%)
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 93¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 62¢ 65¢ $43 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $44 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 82¢ 82¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 42¢ 42¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 76¢ 76¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? No 86¢ 72¢ $43 $36 −$7 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $34 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-17%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 52¢ 57¢ $26 $29 +$2 (+10%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by 10–15%? No 89¢ 93¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 331 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Cognitive" this week? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 47m
Will Trump say "No No No Donald" in June? BUY No 84¢ $17 1h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $8 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 88¢ $178 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 79¢ $167 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 77¢ $75 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 33¢ $6 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 68¢ $34 1h
Will Trump say "Football" this week? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Czar" this week? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 33¢ $16 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 57¢ $8 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 57¢ $17 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 57¢ $34 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 64¢ $32 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 81¢ $40 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 80¢ $35 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 80¢ $12 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre BUY Yes 17¢ $8 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,362.64 · official $2,361.10 (match) · 3500 history records