Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6C
0x6cdc…8586
politics · 127 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$31 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 120
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage108d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 0 History 127 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rockets vs. Bulls Rockets 77¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mavericks 30¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers Bucks 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Thunder Bulls 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Nets vs. Warriors Nets 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Kings Pacers 42¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Pacers Pacers 23¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Jazz Jazz 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Suns Suns 32¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $255 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 21 $122 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $250 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $296 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $417 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $280 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $124 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $115 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $116 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $101 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $142 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 04 $282 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 02 $123 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $125 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $131 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $225 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $151 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $152 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $142 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $137 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $284 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $396 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $157 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% −$9
politics 40% −$10
sports 8% −$13
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $16 10h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 6d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $27 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $140 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $140 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $110 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $110 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $121 20d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $121 20d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $152 21d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $152 22d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 23d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 23d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $140 23d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $140 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $122 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $122 24d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 24d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 122 -4.2% -13.3% 4% 3% -9.7%
all 127 -3.6% -12.8% 6% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.1% 4% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 375 history records