Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ce1…6fc4 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-4%) realized −$43 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$78
other 26% +$5
sports 23% +$91
world 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -17.0% -24.9% 29% 26% -13.1%
≤30d 35 -17.0% -24.9% 29% 26% -13.1%
≤90d 35 -17.0% -24.9% 29% 26% -13.1%
all 35 -17.0% -24.9% 29% 26% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 26% -13.1%
10% -32.1% 26% -21.4%
15% -38.7% 23% -29.0%
20% -44.7% 23% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$9 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)35 / 43
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals Yes 14¢ 49¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+253%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 25¢ 39¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+56%)
Andrés Gómez: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 50¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 16¢ 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$18 +119%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$59 +383%
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $30 +$22 +75%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 +$47 +193%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $16 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$24 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$23 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $5 23m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 1h
Andrés Gómez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $33 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $3 2d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $74 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $10 2d
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 94¢ $52 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 26¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.31 · official $99.68 (match) · 75 history records