Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ce7…d72f sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$41 (-12%) realized −$43 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%27W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$40
sports 26% −$1
world 23% +$1
crypto 11% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -18.2% -26.0% 46% 43% -30.6%
≤30d 28 -18.2% -26.0% 46% 43% -30.6%
≤90d 57 -13.5% -21.7% 47% 35% -22.6%
all 57 -13.5% -21.7% 47% 35% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 35% -22.6%
10% -29.2% 33% -30.0%
15% -36.0% 23% -36.7%
20% -42.3% 14% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses27 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)57 / 69
History coverage52d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 56¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Corners Over 61¢ 82¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Over 43¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 80¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 75¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners Over 70¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 +$10 +55%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +41%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $6 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 17 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 05 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 03 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 29 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 29 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 29 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$1 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 28 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 27 $11 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $45 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Apr 27 $3 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 14m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 70¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $3 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $3 1h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 43¢ $2 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 72¢ $3 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $3 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4 17h
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.80 · official $38.33 (match) · 163 history records