Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ceb…e06a crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,612 (-6%) realized −$1,612 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate68%54W / 25L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$800
7 days−$3,563
14 days−$3,176
30 days−$3,228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$2,849
sports 11% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -6.3% -15.2% 70% 37% -23.0%
≤30d 71 -6.3% -15.3% 69% 35% -20.7%
≤90d 79 -2.1% -11.4% 68% 38% -19.7%
all 79 -2.1% -11.4% 68% 38% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 38% -19.7%
10% -19.9% 27% -27.4%
15% -27.6% 19% -34.4%
20% -34.7% 13% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$227 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,612
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses54 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage42d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $106 −$100 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $706 −$699 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$41 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $87 −$22 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $402 −$398 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $804 +$31 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $758 +$43 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $342 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $356 +$63 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $428 −$428 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $685 +$21 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1,286 +$53 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1,114 +$75 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $505 +$53 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $502 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $454 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$10 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1,532 −$1,532 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $3,551 +$73 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $94 +$32 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $92 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $178 −$26 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $215 +$28 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $211 −$211 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $516 −$145 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $402 +$154 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $514 +$33 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $415 −$28 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $522 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $502 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2,046 −$419 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $613 −$215 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $314 −$300 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 64¢ $505 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 72¢ $161 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 80¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $38 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $57 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $56 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $46 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $402 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $413 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $401 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $423 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $403 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $399 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $401 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $401 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 258 history records