Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6C 0x6cec…a0ab sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$348 (+5%) realized +$237 · open +$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%78W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$252
7 days+$195
14 days+$195
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$256
other 32% +$122
politics 9% +$77
world 4% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +6.9% -3.3% 46% 46% +8.8%
≤30d 32 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 47% +8.9%
≤90d 123 -3.0% -12.3% 44% 43% -8.7%
all 181 -3.4% -12.6% 43% 42% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 42% -5.3%
10% -20.9% 41% -14.3%
15% -28.6% 39% -22.6%
20% -35.6% 37% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$27 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized+$237
Unrealized+$111
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses78 / 103
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)181 / 184
History coverage698d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 64¢ $118 $140 +$22 (+19%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 100¢ $65 $135 +$70 (+107%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $57 $76 +$20 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$77 +291%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 +$42 +109%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $91 +$92 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $76 +$110 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 +$28 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $46 +$48 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $34 +$33 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$49 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 +$27 +60%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $23 +$45 +197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$36 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 +$28 +79%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $18 +$15 +83%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $46 +$52 +114%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $53 +$48 +90%
SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 May 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 29 $27 −$27 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $47 −$47 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $58 +$57 +97%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $18 +$27 +146%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $54 +$47 +86%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Eberechi Eze: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $28 +$10 +34%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $12 +$12 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 19 $38 −$38 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Apr 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $71 +$99 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $57 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $66 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $120 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $26 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $38 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $12 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $91 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $53 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $76 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 35h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $34 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $46 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $33 35h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $45 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $38 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $45 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $23 2d
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $35 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $35 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $41 3d
Frantzdy Pierrot: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $56 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $18 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $13 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.34 · official $282.41 · 402 history records