Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ced…c05b sports 29 markets active 6h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$99 (-4%) realized −$100 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate80%20W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$51
14 days−$22
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$20
crypto 35% −$80
other 26% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.2% 89% 33% -14.3%
≤30d 25 -14.5% -22.6% 80% 16% -13.5%
≤90d 25 -14.5% -22.6% 80% 16% -13.5%
all 25 -14.5% -22.6% 80% 16% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 16% -13.5%
10% -30.0% 8% -21.8%
15% -36.8% 4% -29.3%
20% -43.0% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$50 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses20 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage16d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Over 95¢ 96¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 20 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$12 +12%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $148 −$147 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 +$42 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 +$25 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $94 +$8 +8%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) Jun 11 $140 +$4 +3%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $137 +$3 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $119 +$19 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$2 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 06 $112 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 05 $99 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $115 5h
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 99¢ $114 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $102 28h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 39h
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) BUY Czechia 99¢ $100 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY 44¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $148 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 71¢ $106 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 58¢ $27 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $127 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $103 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $94 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 85¢ $50 7d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5) BUY Texas Rangers 97¢ $140 8d
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Mexico 98¢ $137 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $119 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 24¢ $1 14d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY HANJIN BRION 20¢ $1 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 24¢ $1 14d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 24¢ $1 14d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY Team Heretics Academy 96¢ $112 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 15d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.61 · official $115.61 (match) · 51 history records