Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cf9…9d9f politics 43 markets active 46d ago coverage 856d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29,756 (+17%) realized +$28,888 · open +$868
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$4,150per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$7,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$33,037
politics 21% +$3,110
sports 8% −$3,450
world 5% −$3,596
other 5% −$215
economics 3% +$870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 41 -8.1% -16.8% 49% 27% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 27% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 12% -4.5%
15% -32.0% 12% -13.7%
20% -38.7% 7% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$3,275) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,242 vs −$760 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

856d coverage
Net worth$7,000
Realized+$28,888
Unrealized+$868
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage856d
Avg bet$4,150
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $4,746 $6,975 +$2,229 (+47%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1,386 $25 −$1,361 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $4,001 −$4,001 -100%
$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024? Jan 01 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? Jan 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Jan 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "growth" 10 or more times during December FOMC Dec 19 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC P Dec 19 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "price" 10 or more times during December FOMC P Dec 19 $722 −$722 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Pres Dec 19 $3,275 +$2,242 +68%
Will Jerome Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December FOMC Pres Dec 19 $900 +$9,100 +1011%
Will New Hampshire be the tipping point state? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Dec 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Dec 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Wisconsin be the closest state? Dec 18 $721 −$15 -2%
Will Pennsylvania be the tipping point state? Dec 18 $994 +$6 +1%
Will California move right in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? Dec 14 $996 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? Dec 11 $6,642 +$678 +10%
Assad leaves Syria before 2025? Dec 11 $66 +$9 +14%
Will New York move right in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election? Dec 11 $997 +$3 +0%
Will $MOODENG be listed first on Coinbase? Dec 08 $9,850 +$150 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Dec 05 $4,960 +$40 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Mar 19 $1,629 +$273 +17%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Mar 19 $125 +$26 +21%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? Mar 19 $355 +$35 +10%
Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by less than 10% of the vote Mar 06 $868 +$32 +4%
Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 20-30% of the vot Mar 06 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by between 10-20% of the vot Mar 06 $698 +$102 +15%
Nikki Haley wins >50% of the vote in Nevada Republican primary? Feb 25 $338 −$338 -100%
Will Nikki Haley drop out before South Carolina primary? Feb 25 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the South Carolina Republican Primary? Feb 25 $491 +$9 +2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the South Carolina Republican Primary? Feb 25 $2,205 −$5 -0%
Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary by more than 50% of the vote Feb 24 $16,451 +$7,436 +45%
Will JUP be between $0.70 and $1.00 one day after airdrop? Feb 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will JUP be below $0.40 one day after airdrop? Feb 02 $836 −$836 -100%
Will JUP be above $1.00 one day after airdrop? Feb 02 $5,634 +$1,066 +19%
Hamas lose power in Gaza before February? Feb 02 $135 +$365 +270%
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary 12.5-15% Jan 30 $745 −$745 -100%
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15% Jan 28 $3,650 −$3,650 -100%
BTC ETFs first week combined AUM under $10 billion? Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
SEC approves first spot Bitcoin ETF on Jan 10? Jan 26 $19,996 +$8,939 +45%
Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? Jan 11 $78,356 +$14,330 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $218 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $6 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $14 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $14 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $2 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $12 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $2 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $14 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $7 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $4 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $4 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $4 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $9 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $4 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $3 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $4 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $14 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $6 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $5 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $2 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $7 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $5 46d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.