Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cfa…03c7 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-7%) realized −$94 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$63
14 days−$156
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$157
other 17% −$4
weather 3% −$5
sports 3% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.9% -23.0% 56% 44% -20.1%
≤30d 33 -21.5% -29.0% 52% 42% -24.3%
≤90d 33 -21.5% -29.0% 52% 42% -24.3%
all 33 -21.5% -29.0% 52% 42% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 42% -24.3%
10% -35.8% 27% -31.6%
15% -42.0% 21% -38.2%
20% -47.7% 9% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage10d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$6 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$15 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $155 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $42 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $62 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $83 −$40 -48%
Will England vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $83 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $32 +$35 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 23m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $25 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 40¢ $40 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 20¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 40¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $14 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 57¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $21 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 49¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.24 · official $51.24 (match) · 115 history records