Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6cfe…c83c sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$343 (+6%) realized +$343 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$602per market
Trades / day109.0pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$382
other 6% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +45.3% +31.4% 44% 44% +1.6%
≤30d 9 +45.3% +31.4% 44% 44% +1.6%
≤90d 9 +45.3% +31.4% 44% 44% +1.6%
all 9 +45.3% +31.4% 44% 44% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.4% 44% +1.6%
10% ← realistic here +18.9% 44% -8.1%
15% +7.4% 33% -17.0%
20% -3.2% 22% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$46 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$343
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$602
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,082 −$69 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $212 +$20 +9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $119 −$66 -55%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $86 −$28 -32%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $805 +$230 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $287 −$62 -22%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,030 +$134 +7%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $514 +$217 +42%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $284 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 7¢ $22 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 3¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 6¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 15¢ $95 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $27 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $27 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 9¢ $29 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 11¢ $38 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $17 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $54 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $14 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $34 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $8 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $140 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $4 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $88 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $10 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $145 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $270 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 51¢ $60 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $10 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $5 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $1 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $20 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $200 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $323 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $652 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $11 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records