Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cff…45ac crypto 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$937 (-16%) realized −$910 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate33%29W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% +$307
world 25% −$1,098
other 23% +$93
sports 13% +$15
politics 5% −$46
weather 4% −$164
finance 2% −$32
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -18.4% -26.2% 75% 25% -13.4%
≤30d 4 -18.4% -26.2% 75% 25% -13.4%
≤90d 9 -13.8% -22.1% 44% 22% -25.1%
all 87 -9.3% -17.9% 33% 24% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 24% -27.4%
10% -25.8% 23% -34.4%
15% -32.9% 23% -40.7%
20% -39.5% 23% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$36 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,286
Realized−$910
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses29 / 58
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)87 / 96
History coverage133d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 72¢ $468 $472 +$3 (+1%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 12¢ $390 $375 −$15 (-4%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Ireland 6¢ 6¢ $43 $47 +$4 (+8%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $33 −$12 (-27%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $37 +$7 +20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 25 $134 +$8 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands Jun 25 $589 +$3 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $22 +$71 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 14 $170 −$115 -68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 March 16-22? Mar 18 $189 +$111 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11AM ET Mar 18 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9AM ET Mar 18 $32 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 9? Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15? Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 9? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on Mar Mar 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 8? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 9? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 16 Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 16? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Mar 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3PM ET Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on March 8? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 16 Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8AM ET Mar 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on March Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 15? Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 16 Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 15? Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 16? Mar 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 18 $221 −$64 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 7? Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 6? Mar 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 15? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 16? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 16? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 15? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 16? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 16? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 16? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $32 2m
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $37 8m
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 9m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 6¢ $13 22m
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 6¢ $14 22m
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 24m
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 25m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 34¢ $10 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 34¢ $45 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 34¢ $11 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 34¢ $11 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 34¢ $45 54m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland SELL Scotland 34¢ $19 54m
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 75¢ $302 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 13¢ $400 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $4 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands SELL South Africa 97¢ $592 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $9 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $3 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $386 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 96¢ $15 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 96¢ $152 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 96¢ $48 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $3 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands BUY South Africa 96¢ $24 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $8 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland BUY Scotland 32¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,286.20 · official $1,286.20 (match) · 727 history records