Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d00…515b crypto 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$311 (+2%) realized +$308 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%47W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$76
sports 4% +$46
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.4% -0.1% 71% 64% +7.3%
≤30d 77 +1.2% -8.5% 61% 52% -8.6%
≤90d 77 +1.2% -8.5% 61% 52% -8.6%
all 77 +1.2% -8.5% 61% 52% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 52% -8.6%
10% -17.2% 39% -17.4%
15% -25.2% 29% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 21% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$91 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$308
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses47 / 30
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage26d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Under 22¢ 25¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$22 -42%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $94 +$4 +4%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $30 +$10 +33%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$24 +78%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$13 +27%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$20 +101%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$16 -51%
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $73 +$44 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $61 +$11 +19%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 −$17 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 29 $413 +$310 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 28 $202 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 28 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 28 $231 +$119 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $218 −$210 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 28 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 28 $231 +$131 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 28 $32 +$115 +361%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 28 $410 +$32 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 28 $719 +$346 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 28 $388 −$377 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 28 $303 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 28 $332 −$44 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 26 $52 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 26 $73 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 26 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 26 $102 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 26 $203 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 26 $205 +$22 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 26 $205 +$80 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 26 $411 +$52 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 26 $206 +$40 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 26 $232 +$52 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 26 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 26 $61 +$58 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 26 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 26 $101 −$89 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 26 $202 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 26 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 26 $103 +$104 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 26 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 26 $36 +$39 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $30 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 11m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 72¢ $36 30m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 30m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 99¢ $40 30m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 94¢ $54 30m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $43 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $49 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $43 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $30 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $30 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $28 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $41 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $31 4h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $31 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $20 15h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 15h
United States vs. Australia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 15h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $117 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.73 · official $22.73 (match) · 292 history records