Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d09…6139 other 53 markets active 3h ago coverage 723d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%49W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$7
politics 25% −$22
sports 10% +$1
crypto 6% +$1
world 6% +$3
tech 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤90d 4 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 51 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$29 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

723d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses49 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage723d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $64 +$3 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 13 $44 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 18? Mar 30 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 25 $69 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 05 $28 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs Tjen Feb 05 $190 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Feb 03 $28 $0 +1%
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO in 2025? Jan 20 $56 $0 +0%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 02 $58 $0 +1%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 28 $216 +$2 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 08 $26 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 16 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 17 $125 +$1 +1%
Will SBF launch a coin before April? Apr 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana hit $400 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? Feb 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? Feb 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24? Jan 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht? Jan 21 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10? Jan 10 $25 $0 +1%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Jan 05 $20 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out in 2024? Jan 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 05 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 05 $28 $0 +1%
Will Trump tweet 35-39 times Nov 15-22? Nov 26 $93 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15? Nov 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15? Nov 12 $11 +$4 +33%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $55 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in October? Nov 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? Oct 25 $55 $0 +0%
Scroll airdrop by September 30? Oct 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100-124 times? Sep 30 $55 $0 +0%
JD Vance replaced as Republican VP nominee? Sep 23 $54 +$1 +1%
Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X? Aug 29 $54 $0 +1%
Trump posts 50-99 times on X? Aug 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 8 times this week? Aug 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $54 $0 +0%
Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 21? Aug 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Macron resigns before August? Aug 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kamala drop out in July? Aug 04 $18 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke by July 31? Aug 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 20? Jul 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Biden drop out on July 19? Jul 20 $49 $0 +0%
Nasrallah remains leader of Hezbollah through July? Jul 17 $56 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $56 2h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 2d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $64 43d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 73d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 94d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 94d
Will Backpack launch a token on March 18? BUY No 99¢ $89 94d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY No 100¢ $69 116d
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 137d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 99¢ $28 150d
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $28 172d
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $28 172d
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $58 203d
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? BUY Yes 99¢ $216 242d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 99¢ $26 288d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 90¢ $17 323d
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? BUY No 100¢ $57 372d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 7? BUY Up 98¢ $26 408d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 99¢ $125 434d
Will SBF launch a coin before April? BUY No 99¢ $10 461d
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $28 481d
Will Solana hit $400 by February 28 2025? BUY No 100¢ $16 487d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb BUY No 100¢ $25 501d
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? BUY No 99¢ $12 511d
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24? BUY No 100¢ $32 513d
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht? BUY No 98¢ $44 523d
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 3-Jan 10? BUY No 99¢ $25 530d
Netanyahu out in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $20 536d
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $20 538d
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $28 554d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.48 · official $120.48 (match) · 107 history records