Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:41:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d0b…a941 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$105 (+7%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate72%31W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day81.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +17.7% +6.5% 72% 56% -11.0%
≤30d 43 +17.7% +6.5% 72% 56% -11.0%
≤90d 43 +17.7% +6.5% 72% 56% -11.0%
all 43 +17.7% +6.5% 72% 56% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.5% 56% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -3.7% 33% -19.5%
15% -13.0% 16% -27.3%
20% -21.5% 12% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$38 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses31 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day81.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$14 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $77 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $78 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$65 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $76 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$217 +708%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $29 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records