Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d0f…95ea sports 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$57 (-3%) realized −$84 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%76W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$42
14 days−$10
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 32% −$87
sports 30% +$55
politics 16% +$27
other 12% −$82
economics 8% +$10
tech 1% +$9
world 1% −$3
finance 1% +$4
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -40.7% -46.3% 24% 24% -17.0%
≤30d 30 -17.7% -25.5% 33% 30% -15.0%
≤90d 94 -9.0% -17.7% 46% 44% -18.2%
all 154 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 44% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 44% -15.1%
10% -23.6% 41% -23.2%
15% -31.0% 36% -30.7%
20% -37.8% 28% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses76 / 78
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 156
History coverage226d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 11¢ 34¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+214%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 74¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+93%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A paiN 42¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 17¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BetBoom Team 27¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Astralis 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Legacy 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Astralis 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $46 +$30 +65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 14 $194 +$49 +25%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -10%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Jun 14 $38 −$25 -67%
US defaults on debt by 2027? Jun 14 $32 −$25 -77%
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $58 −$18 -32%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$4 -27%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -96%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 +$13 +100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $6 +$5 +84%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$8 +83%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 04 $3 +$16 +516%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $31 −$10 -32%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $4 +$4 +105%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $4 +$4 +101%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $7 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $14 −$7 -49%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $4 +$2 +58%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $4 +$3 +72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $22 +$11 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $20 −$15 -76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 11¢ $5 4m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $432 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 72¢ $70 52m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $224 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $7 1h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 50¢ $147 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 85¢ $12 1h
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 1h
US defaults on debt by 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 1h
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $40 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 49¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 6¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $4 3h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 63¢ $12 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 15¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 79¢ $14 6h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 66¢ $31 6h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.35 · official $25.36 (match) · 483 history records