Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6d13…adc5 world 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$451 (-14%) realized −$451 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$17
other 22% −$463
crypto 14% −$10
sports 14% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 -12.2% -20.6% 25% 0% -22.1%
≤90d 8 -12.2% -20.6% 25% 0% -22.1%
all 8 -12.2% -20.6% 25% 0% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 0% -22.1%
10% -28.2% 0% -29.5%
15% -35.1% 0% -36.4%
20% -41.5% 0% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$123 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$451
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage16d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $465 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 25 $466 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $253 −$2 -1%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 16 $239 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 10 $464 −$463 -100%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $477 −$16 -3%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $443 +$37 +8%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 09 $451 −$10 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records