Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d17…913d crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$246 (-5%) realized −$91 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%29W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$343
sports 7% −$152
politics 1% −$1
other 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 50% +11.4%
≤30d 2 -14.7% -22.8% 50% 50% +11.4%
≤90d 63 -7.9% -16.7% 46% 44% -15.9%
all 63 -7.9% -16.7% 46% 44% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 44% -15.9%
10% -24.7% 40% -24.0%
15% -31.9% 35% -31.3%
20% -38.6% 29% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$45 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses29 / 34
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage84d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 60¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 14¢ $194 $40 −$154 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $73 −$20 -27%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 09 $94 −$83 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 09 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 09 $210 −$182 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 09 $140 −$114 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 09 $50 −$33 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 09 $389 −$82 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$93 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 09 $311 +$127 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 09 $20 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 09 $20 +$22 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 09 $200 +$111 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 09 $70 −$56 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 09 $132 −$96 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 09 $139 −$111 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 09 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 26 $21 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 26 $137 −$54 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 26 $150 +$56 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$7 -72%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG - Game 2 Winner Mar 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 25 $130 +$59 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 25 $60 −$33 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 25 $50 +$38 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 25 $450 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 25 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 25 $20 −$16 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 25 $90 +$59 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 25 $20 +$38 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 25 $110 +$33 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 25 $50 +$40 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 25 $50 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 25 $200 +$122 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 25 $20 +$49 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Mar 25 $60 +$40 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 25 $10 +$18 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 25 $40 −$23 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 25 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 25 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - EMEA Masters Pla Mar 25 $1 $0 +19%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Mar 25 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 25 $33 −$14 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $38 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 68d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $11 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $79 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $15 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $13 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $27 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $17 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $26 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $40 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $100 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $17 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $50 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $103 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $204 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $389 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $7 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $100 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $28 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.42 · official $146.96 · 217 history records