Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d18…d16c crypto 1331 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$603 (-15%) realized −$593 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%567W / 761L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day60.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$66
14 days−$191
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$281
other 6% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 311 -3.3% -12.5% 48% 46% -15.2%
≤30d 864 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 40% -19.3%
≤90d 1328 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 41% -17.7%
all 1328 -8.8% -17.5% 43% 41% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 41% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 38% -25.6%
15% -32.6% 35% -32.8%
20% -39.2% 31% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$593
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses567 / 761
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1328 / 1331
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day60.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 90¢ 26¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-72%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 69¢ 22¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-69%)
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 52¢ 10¢ $6 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$4 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$3 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$6 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$3 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +25%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +75%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$8 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$5 +259%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$9 +482%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$5 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +117%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 16m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 18m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 30m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 30m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 33m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 54m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 55m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 55m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 56m
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 56m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.57 · official $4.28 (match) · 3500 history records