Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d1f…890d other 1483 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+0%) realized +$105 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%1349W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$175
7 days+$177
14 days+$179
30 days+$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$240
weather 31% +$27
sports 21% −$303
politics 6% +$55
world 5% +$192
tech 1% −$15
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +1.4% -8.3% 92% 2% -1.5%
≤30d 214 -0.8% -10.2% 89% 4% -5.7%
≤90d 1366 +1.0% -8.7% 94% 3% -9.0%
all 1435 +1.0% -8.7% 94% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 3% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.4% 1% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$1,307
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1349 / 86
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions48
Markets (closed)1435 / 1483
History coverage93d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 1435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $217 $221 +$4 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in July 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $182 $184 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in July 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $156 $158 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in July? No 95¢ 98¢ $107 $110 +$3 (+3%)
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in July? No 95¢ 79¢ $80 $66 −$13 (-17%)
Will Chainlink reach $20 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+4%)
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will Karmine Corp Make Finals at MSI 2026 No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 93¢ 90¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? No 96¢ 75¢ $62 $48 −$14 (-22%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 100¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Amazon have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? No 98¢ 75¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-23%)
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? No 95¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Game 3: Any Player Penta Kill? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? Jun 26 $252 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $148 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Jun 26 $26 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Jun 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 26 $430 +$157 +37%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 26 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 26 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 26 $38 +$1 +2%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? Jun 26 $149 +$7 +5%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in June? Jun 26 $58 +$1 +2%
Spread: Norway (-4.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: MASQ (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DK vs FLY Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $9 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Hero JiuJing vs EDward Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Türkiye (-5.5) Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Zeitune (-1.5) vs Zanellato (+1.5) Jun 26 $4 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $21 $0 +1%
Will T1 make a roster change before July? Jun 26 $2 $0 +3%
Set Handicap: Miguel (-1.5) vs Wild (+1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? Jun 25 $4 $0 -0%
Set Handicap: Cigarran (-1.5) vs Taverna (+1.5) Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Tauson (+1.5) Jun 25 $61 $0 +0%
Hugo Gaston vs. Moez Echargui: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Maria Timofeeva vs. Heather Watson: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs. Otto Virtanen: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Mariam Bolkvadze vs. Jeline Vandromme: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in June 2026? Jun 25 $49 +$1 +3%
Set Handicap: Bertola (-2.5) vs Basing (+2.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs AM Gaming (+1.5) Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Kopriva (+1.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $10 $0 -4%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in June? Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? Jun 23 $51 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 23 $2 $0 +1%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $8 27m
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? SELL No 93¢ $8 35m
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in July? BUY No 95¢ $80 36m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $55 37m
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 37m
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 37m
Will Mistral have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 38m
Will Baidu have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 41m
Will Amazon have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 41m
Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 41m
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? SELL No 94¢ $5 42m
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? SELL No 94¢ $70 43m
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in July 2026? BUY No 95¢ $70 44m
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? SELL No 94¢ $70 44m
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in July 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 46m
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? SELL No 95¢ $19 47m
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? SELL No 95¢ $18 48m
Will xAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 49m
Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 49m
Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 49m
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $26 50m
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in July 2026? BUY No 94¢ $64 53m
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? SELL No 94¢ $18 55m
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? SELL No 95¢ $2 56m
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? SELL No 95¢ $45 56m
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in July? BUY No 94¢ $252 57m
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? SELL No 84¢ $51 58m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $95 58m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $42 59m
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $65 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,306.63 · official $1,306.63 (match) · 3500 history records